NFP Friday September 4 2026 at 15:30 UTC+3
NFP PREVIEW · SEP 4, 2026 · 15:30 UTC+3

The headline is only the first layer of Friday’s gold risk

The August U.S. Employment Situation arrives after July payrolls fell by 23,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and prior May–June payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 103,000. For XAUUSD, wages and revisions can matter as much as the headline.

Current calendar baseline

Nonfarm payrolls+41K

Calendar forecast; July was −23K.

Unemployment rate4.1%

Calendar forecast; unchanged from July.

Average hourly earnings3.4% y/y

Calendar forecast; July was 3.2% y/y.

Consensus snapshot observed on August 29 and may change before release. Always check the latest calendar.

Three XAUUSD scenarios

Dovish labour signal

Payrolls materially below expectations, rising unemployment, softer wages and/or negative revisions would normally weaken the dollar/yields channel and support gold.

Hawkish labour signal

A clear payroll beat with firm wages and stable or lower unemployment could lift yields and the dollar, creating initial pressure on gold.

Mixed report

A strong headline with weak revisions, or weak payrolls with hot wages, raises the risk of a fast reversal. Confirmation from U.S. yields and the dollar is essential.

Execution-risk checklist

Informational analysis only; not investment advice. Leveraged trading involves risk.

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Sources

BLS July 2026 Employment Situation and September 4 release notice
BLS Employment Situation release schedule
Economic-calendar consensus snapshot

Кратко по-русски

Пятничный NFP выходит 4 сентября в 15:30 UTC+3. Смотрите не только число новых рабочих мест, но и безработицу, зарплаты и пересмотры прошлых месяцев. Слабый комплекс данных обычно поддерживает золото через снижение доллара и доходностей; сильный рынок труда и ускорение зарплат могут оказать давление. Смешанный отчёт повышает риск резкого разворота первого движения.